--- title: The First-Time Buyer Collapse - and Why Data-Driven Prospecting Matters More Than Ever description: First-time homebuyers are aging out, making it crucial for real estate agents to adapt their prospecting strategies to target older, equity-rich sellers directly. --- [The Share Group Blog ](https://www.theshare.group/blog) # [The First-Time Buyer Collapse - and Why Data-Driven Prospecting Matters More Than Ever](https://www.theshare.group/blog/first-time-buyer-collapse-and-why-data-driven-prospecting-matters-more-than-ever) Written by [TheShareGroup](https://www.theshare.group/blog/author/thesharegroup) | Nov 5, 2025 7:41:35 PM ## NAR Just Proved Why Our Strategy Works First-time homebuyers have hit a historic low, making up just **21% of all U.S. home purchases** in the past year, according to the [**National Association of Realtors’ 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers**](https://www.housingwire.com/articles/first-time-homebuyer-share-at-record-low-age-at-record-high/). It’s a startling figure - one that’s cut in half from the 40% share first-time buyers held before the 2008 housing crisis. As affordability challenges, record-high prices, and mortgage rates near 7% squeeze new buyers out of the market, **repeat and older buyers now dominate**. The **median age of all homebuyers is 59**, while **sellers hit an all-time high of 64**. For real estate professionals, these shifts redefine where the listings - and opportunities - really are. > ## Register for the Nov 12th Webinar ## What the Data Tells Us The NAR report, summarized by [**HousingWire**](https://www.housingwire.com/articles/first-time-homebuyer-share-at-record-low-age-at-record-high/), paints a clear picture of a two-speed market: - **Older, equity-rich buyers and sellers are driving the market.** - The median seller age is now **64**, up from 63 last year. - Repeat buyers have a median age of **62**, with many using all-cash offers or larger down payments (23% on average). - **30% of all purchases were cash transactions**, matching all-time highs. - **First-time buyers are aging out and being priced out.** - Median first-time buyer age: **40** (highest ever recorded). - Down payments averaged **10%**, with many tapping into 401(k)s and personal savings. - 92% financed their home purchase, but higher interest rates continue to limit what they can afford. - **Longer tenure and fewer moves.** - Homeowners now stay in their homes a median of **11 years**, compared to just 6-7 years before the Great Recession. - As a result, available inventory remains tight, and agents are competing over fewer listings. ## Tim  Take: The Market Has Shifted - Prospecting Must Too In a new video, **Tim Slevin, CEO of The Share Group**, explained how this data reinforces what his team has been seeing for months - and how agents can use targeted data to adapt. > “If you can make a living on referrals and past clients, you don’t need this video,” Tim said. “But if you’re the type of realtor who says, ‘I need to get more in the pipeline and I want a great 2026,’ this report confirms that **the number one way to get listings is direct contact**.” Tim emphasized that successful agents in 2025 and beyond are using **data-driven seller intelligence** to go directly to homeowners most likely to list - especially **downsizers** in the 60+ age group. > “The Share Group takes 1,000 homes and boils it down to the 450 that you need to talk to,” he explained. “Half your prospecting should now focus on people over 64. That’s your market.” ## The Rise of the Downsizer Market This shift aligns with what The Share Group calls the **“downsizer demographic”** - homeowners who have significant equity and are ready to sell, often to move closer to family or reduce living costs. In the [NAR report](https://www.housingwire.com/articles/first-time-homebuyer-share-at-record-low-age-at-record-high/), **26% of sellers said their top reason for selling was to move closer to friends or family**, while another 20% cited lifestyle or size changes. These motivations are exactly what agents can identify early through targeted homeowner data and consistent outreach. Tim noted that experienced agents - particularly those with decades of relationships and community knowledge - are best positioned to connect with these sellers. > “If you’ve been in the game for 30 years, this is your time to shine,” he said. “Your peers are the market.” ## Why Direct Contact Beats Passive Marketing While many lead systems rely on pay-per-click ads or social media funnels to generate interest, The Share Group takes a **direct contact approach**. > “Every other lead generation system is just trying to get you to talk to the seller,” Tim said. “We skip the middle steps and get you straight to that conversation.” The Share Group’s system provides: - **Highly targeted seller lists** with verified contact information - **Email-ready outreach templates and scripts** - **AngelAI**, an automated calling assistant that can make **500 calls a week at no cost** The goal: help agents convert data into meaningful conversations - and listings - faster and more efficiently. ## 2026 Outlook: Relationships, Data, and Direct Action The takeaway from both the NAR data and Slevin’s message is clear - **the era of easy first-time buyer business is over**. The future belongs to agents who can **identify and engage homeowners most likely to sell**, particularly aging owners with equity and motivation. > “You need to go talk to the market,” Tim concluded. “We’re showing you how to do that, with the data and tools to make it happen.” The Share Group is hosting webinars on **November 12 and 19** to help agents get started with **downsizer and seller lead lists**, outreach scripts, and AI-powered calling tools.   ## Register for the Nov 12th Webinar ### Learn More from The Share Group Visit **[TheShare.Group](https://www.theshare.group)** to explore seller lead packages, AI calling, and upcoming webinars that help agents turn market data into listings. 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