The First-Time Buyer Collapse - and Why Data-Driven Prospecting Matters More Than Ever

NAR Just Proved Why Our Strategy Works

First-time homebuyers have hit a historic low, making up just 21% of all U.S. home purchases in the past year, according to the National Association of Realtors’ 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. It’s a startling figure - one that’s cut in half from the 40% share first-time buyers held before the 2008 housing crisis.

As affordability challenges, record-high prices, and mortgage rates near 7% squeeze new buyers out of the market, repeat and older buyers now dominate. The median age of all homebuyers is 59, while sellers hit an all-time high of 64.

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For real estate professionals, these shifts redefine where the listings - and opportunities - really are.

What the Data Tells Us

The NAR report, summarized by HousingWire, paints a clear picture of a two-speed market:

• Older, equity-rich buyers and sellers are driving the market.

  • The median seller age is now 64, up from 63 last year.

  • Repeat buyers have a median age of 62, with many using all-cash offers or larger down payments (23% on average).

  • 30% of all purchases were cash transactions, matching all-time highs.

• First-time buyers are aging out and being priced out.

  • Median first-time buyer age: 40 (highest ever recorded).

  • Down payments averaged 10%, with many tapping into 401(k)s and personal savings.

  • 92% financed their home purchase, but higher interest rates continue to limit what they can afford.

• Longer tenure and fewer moves.

  • Homeowners now stay in their homes a median of 11 years, compared to just 6-7 years before the Great Recession.

  • As a result, available inventory remains tight, and agents are competing over fewer listings.

Tim  Take: The Market Has Shifted - Prospecting Must Too

In a new video, Tim Slevin, CEO of The Share Group, explained how this data reinforces what his team has been seeing for months - and how agents can use targeted data to adapt.

“If you can make a living on referrals and past clients, you don’t need this video,” Tim said. “But if you’re the type of realtor who says, ‘I need to get more in the pipeline and I want a great 2026,’ this report confirms that the number one way to get listings is direct contact.”

Tim emphasized that successful agents in 2025 and beyond are using data-driven seller intelligence to go directly to homeowners most likely to list - especially downsizers in the 60+ age group.

“The Share Group takes 1,000 homes and boils it down to the 450 that you need to talk to,” he explained. “Half your prospecting should now focus on people over 64. That’s your market.”

The Rise of the Downsizer Market

This shift aligns with what The Share Group calls the “downsizer demographic” - homeowners who have significant equity and are ready to sell, often to move closer to family or reduce living costs.

In the NAR report, 26% of sellers said their top reason for selling was to move closer to friends or family, while another 20% cited lifestyle or size changes. These motivations are exactly what agents can identify early through targeted homeowner data and consistent outreach.

Tim noted that experienced agents - particularly those with decades of relationships and community knowledge - are best positioned to connect with these sellers.

“If you’ve been in the game for 30 years, this is your time to shine,” he said. “Your peers are the market.”

Why Direct Contact Beats Passive Marketing

While many lead systems rely on pay-per-click ads or social media funnels to generate interest, The Share Group takes a direct contact approach.

“Every other lead generation system is just trying to get you to talk to the seller,” Tim said. “We skip the middle steps and get you straight to that conversation.”

The Share Group’s system provides:

• Highly targeted seller lists with verified contact information

• Email-ready outreach templates and scripts

• AngelAI, an automated calling assistant that can make 500 calls a week at no cost

The goal: help agents convert data into meaningful conversations - and listings - faster and more efficiently.

2026 Outlook: Relationships, Data, and Direct Action

The takeaway from both the NAR data and Slevin’s message is clear - the era of easy first-time buyer business is over. The future belongs to agents who can identify and engage homeowners most likely to sell, particularly aging owners with equity and motivation.

“You need to go talk to the market,” Tim concluded. “We’re showing you how to do that, with the data and tools to make it happen.”

The Share Group is hosting webinars on November 12 and 19 to help agents get started with downsizer and seller lead lists, outreach scripts, and AI-powered calling tools.

Register for the Webinar to Learn More

Learn More from The Share Group

Visit TheShare.Group to explore seller lead packages, AI calling, and upcoming webinars that help agents turn market data into listings.